Ballon d’Or reiterates Harry Kane won through an independent vote amid insider-trading concerns.
The Ballon d’Or looks to be entangled in an investigation by French police over alleged insider trading.
Taking place in London on 26 October, the Ballon d’Or was a night to remember for England international Harry Kane. The Bayern Munich striker became the first Englishman to win the award since Michael Owen in 2001.
He pipped Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, Rodri and Lionel Messi, who finished in that order from first to fifth.
Data shows that 12 accounts on the prediction market Polymarket successfully predicted the order of the five best male football players of the year, prompting an investigation by the French Police.
The 12 accounts reportedly wagered around €250,000 on the top five and are believed to have profited almost €200,000, as Upside first reported and The Athletic later verified.
Authorities believe the users behind the accounts may have had access to insider information before placing the bets, with organisers of the award, France Football, also launching an investigation.
“The integrity of the Ballon d’Or is an absolute priority for France Football,” a spokesperson said.
“We would like to reiterate that the winner is selected through an independent vote. Be sure that we take these allegations of leaked results and potentially fraudulent betting very seriously. Investigations are underway to establish the facts, and determine any potential responsibility.”
How does insider trading work on prediction markets?
Prediction markets allow users to buy and sell “Yes” and “No” contracts, wagering funds on whether an event will occur.
While it may sound a lot like gambling, there are some differences. Prediction markets allow you to sell your shares at any point in time, the prices are determined by how many people buy “Yes” or “No” shares, and users are trading with other users, compared to betting against the house in gambling.
However, like gambling, platforms have created opportunities for people with access to non-public information to profit.
In April 2026, US Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke was indicted over alleged insider trading on Polymarket. He was accused of using classified information obtained through his involvement in Operation Absolute Resolve, the US military operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
He reportedly placed around $33,000 in wagers on events connected to the operation, generating alleged profits of more than $400,000.
Another case involved Artem Kaptur, who edited videos for YouTuber MrBeast. In February, Kalshi fined and suspended Kaptur after finding he had used non-public information about upcoming YouTube videos to place bets on related markets.
Prediction markets move into professional sport
Despite these concerns, prediction market platforms have entered into commercial relationships with sporting organisations.
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In March 2026, Major League Baseball named Polymarket its official prediction market exchange partner and reached an agreement with the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to strengthen integrity protections.
The NBA followed in October, naming Kalshi and Polymarket as preferred prediction market exchanges.
These agreements allow platforms to access official league data and use sporting intellectual property, as well as introduce restrictions to prevent players and other personnel from trading on markets where they could have inside knowledge.
However, prediction markets’ involvement in sport has attracted criticism in the US, with several states arguing that sports-related event contracts constitute gambling and should therefore fall under state betting laws.
Platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket say that their products are financial contracts regulated federally by the CFTC. The disagreement has led to legal action across multiple states.
